The Decline of Linear TV: By the Numbers
Let’s start with a stark reality check:
- 2014: 100 million households watching linear TV
- Today: 74 million households
- 2025 Forecast: Just 44 million households
This isn’t just a trend. It’s a seismic transformation in how people consume content.
The New Viewing Reality
What Viewers Want
- Personalized content
- On-demand experiences
- Control over when and how they watch
Proof Point: The Grammy Effect
- Live Broadcast: 9 million viewers
- Dua Lipa’s Performance Online: 53 million views and counting
Debunking Linear TV Myths
Myth 1: Marketing Mix Models (MMM) Prove Linear TV’s Effectiveness
Reality: These models are backward-looking and don’t capture real-time media consumption changes.
Myth 2: Only Traditional TV Drives Mass Reach
Reality: 213 million people now stream programming through Connected TV (CTV) apps
Myth 3: Only Professionally Produced Content Matters
Reality:
- 73% of viewers want personal, relevant content
- Only 15% believe content must be professionally produced
Myth 4: Big Screen Experiences Require Traditional TV
Reality: YouTube watch time on TV screens nearly doubled between 2019-2020
Myth 5: Low CPMs Mean Better Value
Reality: Cheaper doesn’t mean more effective
- Average heavy TV viewer sees the same ad 26 times
- Repetition doesn’t equal impact
Success Stories: Brands Embracing Digital-First
Nissan’s Innovative Approach
- Created 30 different creative cuts
- Targeted 7 distinct audiences
- Result: 12% more sales than previous linear TV campaigns
Kimberly-Clark
- Added YouTube CTV campaigns
- Achieved 36% more reach
Coty
- Integrated more digital into holiday campaigns
- Maintained same reach for 15% less budget
Strategies for Digital-First Transformation
1. Creative Flexibility
- Move beyond single creative approach
- Develop targeted, adaptable content
- Optimize in real-time
2. Integrated Reach Planning
- Combine linear TV and digital platforms
- Use Nielsen’s Total Ads Ratings (TAR)
- Find optimal media mix
3. Strategic Testing
- Start small and strategic
- Test digital approaches on:
- Non-core product lines
- Limited geographic regions
- Isolate and measure impact
The Future of TV Advertising
Key Trends
- Personalization
- On-demand experiences
- Cross-platform integration
- Real-time optimization
Viewer-Centric Approach
- Understand changing consumption habits
- Create content that resonates
- Provide genuine value
Actionable Recommendations
- Audit Current Media Mix
- Analyse existing TV advertising strategy
- Identify digital integration opportunities
- Invest in Flexibility
- Develop adaptable creative assets
- Build cross-platform capabilities
- Embrace Data-Driven Insights
- Use advanced measurement tools
- Continuously optimize approach
- Think Audience-First
- Prioritize viewer experience
- Create content people want to watch
Conclusion: Adapt or Get Left Behind
The TV advertising landscape isn’t just changing. It has changed.
Brands that win will:
- Be curious
- Take calculated risks
- Understand viewer behaviour
- Create genuinely compelling experiences
The future of advertising is:
- Personalized
- On-demand
- Digital-first
Are you ready to full stream ahead?
Contact Dorrington Media today!

Leave a Reply